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USDCAD Technical Analysis

  

Loonie Poised for Bullish Reversal Ahead of Key Economic Releases

The U.S. Dollar (USD) rose against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) during the week ended on June 13, 2021, increasing the price of the USDCAD pair to more than 1.2100, ahead of some crucial economic releases that are due this week. The technical bias remains bearish as the pair printed a lower low in the recent downside move.  A major bullish reversal may however be looming as we see a steady upside reversal on higher timeframes.

Technical Analysis 

As of this writing, the USDCAD strengthens around 1.2176. The price of loonie is likely to find some support near the listed price levels.

Support

1.2080 – the low of June 11, 2021

1.2004- the lower trendline arm

1.1903- a major horizontal support 

Weekly Image Source – MetaTrader4

On the upside, the USDCAD pair might face some resistance near the given below price levels.

Resistance

1.2211 – the key horizontal resistance

1.2300 – the psychological number

1.2363 – the upper trendline arm

Daily Overview

If we look at the daily timeframe, the pair is likely to face some resistance near 1.2211, the 23.6% Fib level, ahead of 1.2239, the high of September 10, 2021, and then 1.2337, the Fibonacci retracement (23.6%). 

Daily Image Source – MetaTrader4

On the downside, the pair might find some support near 1.2080, the low of June 11, 2021, ahead of 1.2018, the trendline support and then 1.2000, the psychological number.   

Canada Retail Sales News 

Statistics Canada anticipates releasing numbers for the Retail Sales news on Wednesday (June 23, 2021). As per the average estimate of economists, the Canadian Retail Sales registered a reading of 2.3% in April, as compared to a reading of 3.6% in the month before. 

The retail sales data help economists to evaluate the short-term performance of the retail sector. Generally speaking, a higher reading for the Canadian Retail Sales news is seen as positive for the Canadian Dollar (CAD) and suggests a bearish trend for the USDCAD pair and vice versa. 

U.S. Gross Domestic Product News 

On the other hand, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis is scheduled to release numbers for the U.S. Gross Domestic Product news on Thursday (June 24, 2021). Economists believe that the U.S. GDP rate remained unchanged with a reading of 6.4% during the first quarter this year, as compared to a reading of 6.4% in the quarter before. 

The GDP data is a crucial economic indicator as it is used to estimate the overall economic activity of the country. Generally speaking, a higher reading for the U.S GDP strengthens the U.S. Dollar and suggests a bullish trend for the USDCAD pair and vice versa.  

Conclusion 

Given the macro-economic outlook of the pair, it may be a better option in the short term if the pair was sold at around 1.2211. Due to the volatile nature of the market, however, prices may change and lead to different outcomes. 


Vantage does not represent or warrant that the material provided here is accurate, current, or complete, and therefore should not be relied upon as such. The information provided here, whether from a third party or not, is not to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments; or to participate in any specific trading strategy. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Vantage, reproduction or redistribution of this information is not permitted.

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