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Technical Outlook


-The EUR/JPY pair is at a critical juncture, with the possibility of continuing its corrective decline from 163.70. A fall below 161.7 could deepen losses towards 159.66, while a rise above 163.70 might resume the uptrend towards 164.29.

-The Nasdaq-100 exhibits a bullish trend, supported by its recent breach above the 18000 level. The short-term outlook remains optimistic, but the divergence warrants close observation for signs of market correction.

Top of Form

EU (EUR): Eurozone Interest Rate Decision

The six members of the European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board and the 16 governors of the euro area central banks vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the EUR.

The previous reading was 4.50 %, in line with the expectations. The next report is due on March 07, 2024 at 13:15 GMT. Its forecast also stands at 4.50%.

EURJPY Technical Analysis:

Currently, the EUR/JPY pair shows a neutral intraday bias, with the potential for a continuation of the corrective impulse that started at 163.70. A break below the minor support level of 161.7 may lead to a penetration of the channel support at 161.2 and a further move towards the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 159.66.

However, a clear breakout above 163.70 may indicate the continuation of the rally, with the ultimate target being the recent high at 164.29. This technical configuration denotes a crucial period for the EUR/JPY pair – its future direction can be heavily affected by the upcoming economic events and data releases, including the Japanese CPI for February, Eurozone Retail Sales data and ECB interest rate decision scheduled to be released this week.

Pivot Points: EURJPY

  Support  Resistance
S1162.2  R1162.86  
S2162.48  R2162.96  
S3162.38  R3163.1  

US (USD): U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls

Nonfarm Payrolls measures the change in the number of people employed during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. Job creation is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of economic activity.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

The previous reading was 353K better than the expected 187K. The upcoming report is due on March 08, 2024 at 13:30 GMT. Its forecast stands at 190K.

NAS100 Technical Analysis:

On 1-D chart, the Nasdaq-100 reveals a bullish trend, characterized by its movement within a rising trend channel and a significant breakthrough above the 18000 resistance level. These indicators suggest a strong buying interest and the potential for further upward movement.

However, the presence of a negative RSI divergence introduces a note of caution, indicating a potential for a downward correction due to weakening momentum.

Nonetheless, the overall short-term outlook for the Nasdaq-100 Index remains positive. Traders are advised to monitor this divergence closely, as it may precede market adjustments.

Pivot Points: NAS100

  Support  Resistance
S317716  R318320

Vantage does not represent or warrant that the material provided here is accurate, current, or complete, and therefore should not be relied upon as such. The information provided here, whether from a third party or not, is not to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments; or to participate in any specific trading strategy. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Vantage, reproduction or redistribution of this information is not permitted.

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