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Technical Outlook


-USDCAD broke above 1.3540 resistance due to US CPI surge but lost gains, with potential rally towards 1.3620 if trendline holds; sellers aim below trendline for bearish positions towards 1.3364.

-USD/JPY rose above last Friday but faces potential intervention from Tokyo’s authorities limiting gains; immediate support at 148.90, with a downward tilt indicated. On the flip side, resistance at 150.85 could lead to testing last year’s high.

CA (CAD): Canada Consumer Price Index (CPI) MoM

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CAD.

The previous reading was -0.3 % in line with the expectations. The next report is due on February 20, 2024 at 13:30 GMT. Its forecast stands at 0.4%.

USDCAD Technical Analysis:

In the analysis of the daily trading chart for USDCAD pair, we observed a strong breakout through the 1.3540 resistance zone which came after the recent jump in the US CPI data. Yet, the pair was not able to sustain the momentum, and it returned the gains soon afterwards.

Nonetheless, a trendline is created that can now be considered a key point for buyers to keep an eye on. Traders willing to reap profits on this trend may position themselves for a possible upsurge towards the 1.3610- 1.3620 level, while using a carefully defined risk strategy below the trendline.

On the opposite side of the spectrum, sellers will probably seek a price drop below this level to negate the bullish outlook and pursue more aggressive bearish positions, targeting the 1.3364 level.

Pivot Points: USDCAD

  Support  Resistance
S11.3473  R11.3486  
S21.3469  R21.3495  
S31.3461  R31.3499  

US (USD): U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes are a detailed record of the committee’s policy-setting meeting held about three weeks earlier. The minutes offer detailed insights regarding the FOMC’s stance on monetary policy, so currency traders carefully examine them for clues regarding the outcome of future interest rate decisions.

The event is due on February 21, 2024 at 19:00 GMT.

USDJPY Technical Analysis:

USDJPY closed the previous week in positive territory, with its value comfortably above 150.00. However, the pair’s exchange rate is now moving closer to a zone that, if reached, may prompt Tokyo’s market authorities to do more than issuing verbal warnings or actually taking steps to support the yen. This situation may hamper the future appreciation of the USD or could actually start a reversal in the currency trend in the short run.

As of now, there is a noticeable decrease in the upward momentum of USDJPY, indicating a tilt towards a downward movement. The immediate support of the pair is indicated at 148.70. If the pair eventually continues to weaken, market focus will then shift to the 147.50 level. Conversely, if USDJPY breaks the current trend and go up, 150.9 would provide a resistance to it. This particular resistance level might be a beginning of a new wave of price action aimed at testing the previous year’s high near 152.00.

Pivot Points: USDJPY

  Support  Resistance
S3149.85  R3150.44

Vantage does not represent or warrant that the material provided here is accurate, current, or complete, and therefore should not be relied upon as such. The information provided here, whether from a third party or not, is not to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments; or to participate in any specific trading strategy. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Vantage, reproduction or redistribution of this information is not permitted.

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