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Technical Outlook


-WTI chart has just formed a Bearish RSI Divergence signifying the bearish movement is due.

-XAUUSD recently broke the $1885.30 support zone pushing the price more down.

Crude Oil Inventories

The Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Crude Oil Inventories measures the weekly change in the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by US firms. The level of inventories influences the price of petroleum products, which can impact inflation.

If the increase in crude inventories is more than expected, it implies weaker demand and is bearish for crude prices and vice-versa.

The previous actual reading was -2.17M, while the expected figure was -2.135M. The next report is due on Wednesday, October 4, 2023, 20:00GMT. Its forecast also stands at -1.320M.

WTI Technical Analysis:

The WTI chart shows the price is in uptrend. Till Mid-July, the price was trading below both the moving averages.

The price was consolidated for quite a long time, not breaking the highs and the lows. On July 11th price broke the range, and the 50MA moving up.

Price in the next phase formed a break and retest pattern crossing above both the 200 and 50MA. The moving average formed a golden cross on 24th August, where the price took the support and went up, continuing the trend.

The most important is the Bearish RSI Divergence, signifying the market could reverse, and the trend may change to bearish. Traders must wait for the break of the previous swing low.

Pivot Points: WTI

  Support  Resistance

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls

Nonfarm Payrolls measure the change in the number of people employed during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. Job creation is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of economic activity.

A higher-than-expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

The previous actual data was 187K, while the excepted was 157K. The upcoming report is due on Friday, October 6, 2023, at 18:00 GMT, and its forecast figure is 170K.

XAUUSD Technical Analysis:

XAUUSD is in a downtrend, forming lower highs and lower lows. Before this, a major pattern was formed, which was a Double-top. After the pattern was formed, the price fell, breaking the 50MA below. However, the price came below the 200MA on 27 September.

Price had a number of touches in the diagonal resistance, pushing the price down. Both the MAs are now above the price, signalling there is a high bearish pressure. $1885.30 was a support that the price recently broke.

The RSI line is at 21.44, signifying oversold condition. However, this signal must not be taken into consideration as it is a fresh breakout and a high momentum bearish sentiment.

Traders may go for a sell trade once the price returns to the $1885.30 level, making the support a new resistance and forming a break and retest pattern.

Pivot Points: XAUUSD

  Support  Resistance

Vantage does not represent or warrant that the material provided here is accurate, current, or complete, and therefore should not be relied upon as such. The information provided here, whether from a third party or not, is not to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments; or to participate in any specific trading strategy. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Vantage, reproduction or redistribution of this information is not permitted.

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