Will the fragile rally continue?

Fundamental data

After weeks of negative market sentiment, the crypto market continues to remain positive for now. The weakness of the dollar continues to help most tokens but the sentiment remains fragile. This might just be an initial rally, which we had seen several times during the early days of a new trading month, followed by another selloff during the later days in July.  The general market cap had been shrinking for weeks. Last week showed positive inflow, though. About USD 110 billion had been added to the market pushing the accumulated valuation of the crypto space up to USD 2.15 trillion.

Traders will now wait for new impulses. Geopolitical tensions had been easing but if a conflict will flare up again, this might cause a burden to the market. A potential decline of Bitcoin might then cause the selling pressure to also increase in the altcoin market. 

Technical analysis:

– BTC: Bitcoin is trading at USD 62,916. The month of June ended in a slight positive trend pushing Bitcoin back up. The market regained the psychological USD 60,000 mark and also bounced off the 50- moving average level based on the chart below.

BTCUSD, monthly chart

A push beyond USD 66,000 might indicate that Bitcoin could start a fresh attempt to rise further. That level has been an important resistance as well as support level in the past. In general, though, the uptrend should be eyed with caution. The market remains weak as rallies have been used by traders to sell into them. Since the creation of the all- time- high in October last year Bitcoin had lost more than 50% of its value.

– ETH: Ethereum is currently trading at USD 1,766. ETH has been following the recent strength of BTC and also kept pushing higher. The price is currently well on track to regain positive momentum. A break above the USD 2,000 could hence be on the cards, which might push Ethereum higher as well. A break of the psychological level might then attract fresh buyers pushing the market higher again. 

ETHUSD, weekly chart

However, if the price fails to push back into that range new selling pressure might kick- in as well. Then the price might retest the most recent lows at around USD 1,600. Renewed strength of the dollar and potential negative headlines in regards to the equity market might then offer a burden. 

– XRP: XRP is currently trading at USD 1.1343. Ripple has been able to rise alongside the two previously mentioned tokens. Yet, XRP still remains at crossroads and might also fall back to the downside again.

XRPUSD, monthly chart

The rise of this market during the early days of July might only be a technical retracement. That said, the market might hence lose momentum towards the end of the month. If the price will start to trade below USD 1.0200 this could be a sign of another leg to the downside. The positive sentiment will likely gear up steam only, if the market is able to break the USD 1.4000 level.

– SOL: Solana is currently trading at USD 80.20. The strong bearish sentiment of Solana has seemingly been fading pushing the market back to higher levels. Based on the daily chart below the price was able to push beyond the 50- moving average level.

SOLUSD, daily chart

If the market will be able to also trade above the next resistance zone of USD 84.00 more upside momentum might follow. That level marks the range of the broad sideways pattern, which needs to break initially. To the downside the market seems to be well supported at USD 75.00. A break below that area might cause the current push higher to be invalid, again.